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2026-07-28 21:24
Your eval's confidence interval assumes independent examples. Yours are clustered.
Every binomial confidence interval you have ever computed on an eval pass rate, Wald, Wilson, Clopper-Pearson, all of them, rests on one assumption: each example is an independent draw. Most eval sets violate it. You have 40 questions generated from the same 8 documents, or 200 turns from the same 30 conversations, or 150 examples that are really 50 cases with 3 paraphrases each. Those are not 200...